Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Bryan Wilson
Bryan Wilson

Award-winning photographer and educator passionate about helping others find beauty through the lens.